India’s services exports will increase to $800 billion by 2030 from $340 billion in 2023, making the external sector resilient to supply-side shocks and reducing rupee volatility, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Monday.India’s foreign trade policy announced last year targeted $1 trillion of service exports by 2030.”Our baseline scenario suggests that services exports (as percentage of gross domestic product or GDP) could reach around 11% of GDP by 2030 (versus 9.7% of GDP in 2023) which amounts to around $800 billion (compared to around $340 billion in 2023),” the Goldman Sachs report said, projecting a current account deficit of 1.1% of the GDP, “assuming no significant moves in commodity prices and goods trade balance beyond 2024.”The research arm of the New York City-based global investment bank said India’s high-value services are likely to see strong growth, which in turn will drive top-end discretionary consumption and commercial and residential real estate demand.India’s share in global exports increased to 4.6% in 2023 from 2% in 2005. “India has been gaining share in professional consulting globally, which is relatively less concentrated than other sectors, and India has scope of gaining further share with the rise of Global Capability Centres (GCCs),” the report said.The number of GCCs more than doubled to 1,580 in 2022-23 from 700 in 2009-10, with revenue increasing nearly fourfold to $46 billion.The report said there is also scope for India to increase its share in the insurance, financial, transport and travel sectors.In a favourable scenario, services exports could reach $900 billion by 2030 or 12.4% of GDP, and current account deficit could fall to 0.6% of GDP, the report said.
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