GENEVA, April 16. /TASS/. Experts at the World Trade Organization (WTO) project that, depending on whether the US administration will return to additional (individualized) trade tariffs for countries after a 90-day pause expires, contraction of global trade in 2025 will range from 0.2% to 1.5%, according to the WTO Secretariat’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report.
“After adjusting baseline projections to account for the impact of recently announced tariffs and heightened trade policy uncertainty, WTO economists now foresee a -0.2% contraction in merchandise trade in 2025,” according to the report. Baseline projections by the organization suggest that merchandise trade growth could have been as high as 2.7% this year had tariffs and uncertainty remained low.
If enacted after a 90-day pause, “reciprocal tariffs would reduce world merchandise trade growth by an additional 0.6 percentage points,” while a spreading of trade policy uncertainty “would shave off a further 0.8 percentage points,” WTO economists project. “Taken together, the reciprocal tariffs and spreading trade policy uncertainty would lead to a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade volume in 2025,” the report said.
On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of tariffs on products from 185 countries and territories. Russia is not present on the list. Baseline tariffs of 10% came into force on April 5, while individualized ones became effective on April 9. Moreover, the US administration imposed customs tariffs in the amount of 25% on all imported cars starting April 3. Trump also declared a state of emergency in the country over the economic situation.
On April 9, Trump announced suspension of additional import tariffs imposed on a reciprocal basis for a number of countries and territories for 90 days. The White House explained that the pause was related to trade negotiations, adding that during this period, a universal tariff of 10% will be in effect. Concurrently, the US president raised tariffs on Chinese products to 125%. Considering the rate of 20% imposed earlier for allegedly inefficient efforts by governments of Canada, China, and Mexico in their fight against the fentanyl smuggling, the tariff on goods from China currently totals 145%.
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